- 📈 Pakistan’s Fuel Prices Jump Again
On July 16, 2025, Pakistan’s federal government hiked petrol and diesel rates effective immediately for the following fortnight: Petrol surged by PKR 5.36/L, rising from PKR 266.79 to PKR 272.15. High-Speed Diesel (HSD) rose by PKR 11.37/L, from PKR 272.98 to PKR 284.35 IEA +10
The Express Tribune +10
The Tribune +10 . This represents the third straight increase in recent weeks: petrol had increased by PKR 4.80 on June 16 and PKR 8.36 on July 1 Arab News . The rise stems from several important drivers: Global crude prices continued to rise despite geopolitical tensions and sustained economic demand. Currency depreciation—the Pakistani rupee’s weakness adds around PKR 2/L on fuel expenses Profit by Pakistan Today . Revised Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM): diesel’s domestic transport cost margin was increased dramatically, contributing to per-litre pricing
Dawn +4 Profit by Pakistan Today +4
Wikipedia +4 . With approximately 85% of petroleum being imported, Pakistan’s domestic pump prices remain highly susceptible to global market fluctuations
Reuters +8 Profit by Pakistan Today +8
SAMAA TV +8 .
Global Market Trends and Geopolitics
Despite expectations of easing, global crude remains volatile, influenced by geopolitical stress points: In June 2025, heightened Middle East tensions—especially Israel–Iran exchanges—pushed Brent crude prices up by ~11% before settling just at US$70/barrel
Midland Reporter-Telegram +1 Reuters +1 Wikipedia . The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports a strong global crude supply in June—105.6 mb/d, led mostly by Saudi output, but restrained demand growth ensures excess persists
Reuters +10 IEA +10 Midland Reporter-Telegram +10 . OPEC+ plans significant output increases in August (approx +548 kb/d), expected to suppress prices further Business Insider +4 IEA +4 Automotive Fleet +4 . On July 22, Brent averaged US$68.7–69/bbl, while WTI lingered near US$66–67/bbl, hit by trade-war tensions between the U.S. and EU
Reuters +1 Reuters +1 . The EU’s latest restrictions on Russian oil include a price cap of US$47.60 per barrel and future bans—though the entire impact remains uncertain
Reuters +2
Reuters +2
The Guardian +2 .
U.S. Gasoline: Downward Trend at the Pump
In the U.S., consumer fuel prices are in decrease, even below $3/gallon in most regions: As of mid-July, national average gasoline stood at US$3.13/gal, down 37 cents from a year ago Public Finance +2 Automotive Fleet +2
Reuters +2 . Projections predict summer averages could drop below $3/gal, the first such occurrence in over four years Reuters . Analysts attribute this to increased OPEC+ output, cooling demand, higher imports, and a lag between crude and retail pricing
Wall Street Journal +5 Midland Reporter-Telegram +5
Reuters +5 .
Factors Shaping Fuel Price Swings
Understanding today’s fuel market means considering a mix of variables: 🔹 Crude Oil Trends
Geopolitical concerns, especially in the Middle East, still create price rises
Public Finance +1 SAMAA TV +1 IEA . OPEC+ output strategy in August (increasing approximately 550 kb/d) implies potential for lower prices IEA . 🔹 Currency & Import Costs
In countries like Pakistan, weaker currencies boost the cost of imported fuel—even when oil prices plummet
The Tribune . 🔹 Domestic Policies
Pakistan’s bi-weekly price formula means domestic pump prices move rapidly relative to international standards
The Express Tribune UNESCO Pakistan Arab News . Adjusted IFEM margins directly affect diesel affordability
Reuters +3
Wikipedia +3
The Guardian +3 . 🔹 Infrastructure & Refining
U.S. regional constraints—like pipeline/backlog issues—can lead pump prices to diverge from global crude trends
discoveryalert.com.au .
What It Means for Consumers In Pakistan
Inflation ripple effects: Diesel hikes will drive up transport, farm, and food prices across
Arab News The Tribune .
The PKR’s depreciation means further fuel price sensitivity—every 1% fall in currency can add PKR 1–2/L at the pump.In the U.S.: Declining pump costs give respite to motorists.
Seasonal travel is less expensive, but future consumer savings depend on OPEC+ supply decisions and geopolitical stability
Reuters Business Insider .
